Jump to content
Phantis Forums

The Greek Economy Thread


Recommended Posts

It would be catastrophic for the Greek people.  You think we hit rock bottom, nope, we haven't.  No matter what happens, the IMF is still owed $2 billion that must be paid.  You can't default on them.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It would be catastrophic for the Greek people.  You think we hit rock bottom, nope, we haven't.  No matter what happens, the IMF is still owed $2 billion that must be paid.  You can't default on them.  

 

Fine, so we pay back the IMF the $2 billion.  We just don't have to pay back the other $300 or so billion to the other creditors ;)

  • Like it 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Right you can do that but then the creditors are the Eurozone, good luck with that.  You'll be the North Korea of Europe.  Nobody will want to even trade toilet paper with us.  They just have to agree to the stipulations and pay every month and move on.  Everyone knows the end game, so why not just face it.  Running away and screaming I can't hear anything is not helping the cause.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gyros, we almost already are the North Korea of Europe.  25% reduction in GDP thanks to the EU's policies/medicine is not exactly an economic miracle.  They helped organise and gave us the 1st bailout deal.  Didn't work.  Then a 2nd, which also hasn't worked.  Give it time and there will be talk of a 3rd deal, although I suspect the EU is hanging on in the hope of a change of government so that they have someone more malleable to deal with.

 

Ultimately, they want what they want and don't care how they get it.  If you want a Greek government that just does exactly what the EU says, then why even have governments anymore ... which incidentally the EU would love.

 

The EU is not interested and does not care if Greece has unemployment of 99% as long as they get their money.  Which is all well and good, except the EU has become this schizophrenic entity.  The entire purpose and reason for the existence of the EU was to unify Europe.  Instead, their policies since 2008 are doing the opposite.  They are not playing the game for the benefit of Europe but generally for the benefit of the financial elite.  And now, that Greece is pushing back and saying there needs to be a better way, they get all pissy.  I can understand their point of view, why should they listen to a people who are fat, lazy and lying thieves ?  The audacity!  And yes, that is how a lot of the shallow media portrays Greece.

 

The EU is becoming a tyrant, and you can see the results all over Europe.

 

As to what the best strategy is to get the best possible deal for Greece, I actually think Greece is doing the best thing.  The end game hasn't been decided yet.  Our options are comply and face at least 20+ years of the same or worse than now, or fight back.  I'd rather die standing up than on my knees.

  • Like it 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I can't argue with a lot of what you said, John. The IMF has stated that the austerity measures tied to the bailouts were too harsh. There has to be a better way for both Greece and the creditors.

I will add that there's a distinction between the EU and European Zone (EZ). The biggest mistake made not only by Greece but by Germany and the other players was joining the single currency.

Greece has been a member of what's now the European Union for close to 35 years. We didn't need the euro then but probably need it more now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Greece reminds me of someone who is stubborn and dumb. The doctor tells them to quit smoking or you will die.  The Greek continues to smoke because well he's too stubborn and dumb to listen to anyone.  Of course a year later he's dead.  Greece and Greeks are too dumb and stubborn to wake up.  No matter what happens, they did this to themselves and the ending won't be pretty.  Its not about standing up and fighting.  To stand up and fight you need a cause.  Greeks have no cause, they are a lost people.  This is what corruption from the top to bottom does to a country.  Its a rotten country with rotten people. 

Edited by gyros
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes and no gyros.  "They" are to blame but who are "they" ?  You can say the same thing about the US and their housing bubble.  Sometimes a problem or situation gets so out of hand that no one person can tackle it.

 

Here in "rich" Australia they had a mining boom and the government spent like crazy.  They knew that revenue wouldn't be indefinite, but they locked in spending programs that "assumed" they would.  You know, it makes voters happy.  Now that revenue is down Australia has a deficit of roughly 50 billion and at best won't balance the budget for 5 to 10 years.  The current government tried to do something about it, but they did it in a half assed way and their popularity sunk, so now they have backed down and aren't tackling the problem.  Reminiscent of Greece ?  Everyone knows there is a problem.  Revenue won't go up because the current government is generally anti-tax increases, and spending won't go down because they don't want to lose the next election.  Reminiscent of Greece ?

 

You say it won't be pretty.  I tell you it already isn't pretty, but at least they can make a nice Gyros ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Everyone who has lived or visited Greece for a long while can see a few things. Inefficiency and corruption, plus cheating on taxes (other the pensioners and salaried people who can't hide their income). This has to be fixed. I am familiar with the waste of tons of money Greece spends to maintain missions, trade offices, consulates & embassies. Overstuffed, costly, and with a bad attitude. And they get paid very good money as compared to those in Greece. But, even many of the latter report to "work" everyday and don't really work.

 

The bottom line is this: if you want more money from lenders, there will be conditions, especially when you lied and misrepresented the facts in the past to get loans. I wouldn't lend my money to anyone who continues to have a lifestyle full of abuses and irresponsibility.

 

I know that there's lots of discussion (here and in Greece) about the difference among the various political parties, but all are in agreement as to how to use the state as an extension of their patronage.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The problem is Greeks in Greece don;t really want to understand the workings of a proper government..

 

they view everything from a suspicious and know it all point..would rather argue about an issue that happened 45 years ago instead of drawing a line in the sand and finding a solution.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

my take is different because we are talking public x private debts.

 

housing bubble? mortgage backed securities became very popular due to the high returns amongst the wealthy due to high returns, but ultimately toxic, due to american companies eliminating/outsourcing good paying jobs along with downward pressure on wages.

 

who is going to pay mortgages with no job or shrinking pay checks to keep these securities afloat? foreclosures and no takers on foreclosed homes meant these securities became disasterous. so, bail them out....otherwise, we get a liquidity freeze and a likely economic depression.

 

since then, we have observed fines in the billions - negligence, malfeasance, non-fiduciary activities, etc......but, no jail time for individuals.

 

ahhh.....bernie madoff went to jail. why? because he had the balls to steal from the wealthy and had harry markopoulos on his ass.

 

the right-wing media in the usa pointed the finger at dumb americans and even dumber low-level finance bank employees for buying houses they could not afford and approving mortgages the dummy low-class americans could not afford. right.

good points, you could add that the ratings agencies gave triple 'a' ratings to these toxic loans, either knowing they were toxic or just sheer incompetence, these same agencies faced zero consequences for their actions and when they downgrade countries we are all supposed to listen to them as though they are the experts.

  • Like it 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

good points, you could add that the ratings agencies gave triple 'a' ratings to these toxic loans, either knowing they were toxic or just sheer incompetence, these same agencies faced zero consequences for their actions and when they downgrade countries we are all supposed to listen to them as though they are the experts.

 

Not to mention Obama refusing to discriminate against people who couldn't afford a house, he wanted everybody and anybody to get a mortgage. If a guy could fog a mirror, he was getting a $400k mortgage on a strawberry picker's salary. Banks needed stiffer regulations and start discriminating against people who can't afford a mortgage. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

 Banks needed stiffer regulations and start discriminating against people who can't afford a mortgage.

not so much regulation but they should have been allowed to fail because of their irresponsible lending instead of being bailed out and some of the bail out money was used to give those that caused it all huge bonuses, what message does that have sent to the banks ??

 

 

obama took office in jan 2009.....bush had already moved on the bailouts. the crisis occurred prior to obama taking office.

can't defend obama, the guys he got to work for him were the ones who's incompetence and greed caused it all, timothy geithner springs to mind but there were others like MR Summers 

 

 

 

it was revealed that Summers, whom President Obama appointed to essentially run the economy from his perch in the National Economic Council, earned nearly $8 million in 2008 from Wall Street banks, some of which, like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, were now receiving tens of billions of taxpayer funds from the same Summers. It turns out now that those two banks have continued paying into Summers-related businesses.

obamas a fraud, at least with bush he doesn't pretend to be on the people's side you knew where you stood. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Much is assumed here which is incorrect.

Should Greece declare bankruptcy, default on loans and go back to its own currency, the entire rest of the world will NOT treat us as a pariah, refuse all trade with us, etc. That has been historically proven in case after case. Eventually, the grocer prefers to have a customer who barters than to have no customer at all.

 

The problem with Greeks is that they want to euro. There will be continual crises if Greece stays in a currency supplied - at cost - by foreign entities at their own pleasure. With their own currency, at least domestic salaries will be paid and the economy will pick up. With it, also tax revenue for the government.

 

This is a no-brainer. We need our own currency and our old markets back for our old products. What we don't need is the EU's constraints in fiscal policy and trading.

  • Like it 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Much is assumed here which is incorrect.

Should Greece declare bankruptcy, default on loans and go back to its own currency, the entire rest of the world will NOT treat us as a pariah, refuse all trade with us, etc. That has been historically proven in case after case. Eventually, the grocer prefers to have a customer who barters than to have no customer at all.

 

The problem with Greeks is that they want to euro. There will be continual crises if Greece stays in a currency supplied - at cost - by foreign entities at their own pleasure. With their own currency, at least domestic salaries will be paid and the economy will pick up. With it, also tax revenue for the government.

 

This is a no-brainer. We need our own currency and our old markets back for our old products. What we don't need is the EU's constraints in fiscal policy and trading.

 

Greeks will no longer be able to afford their "toys" once this happens.  No more imported anything because their buying power will be cut in half.  So if they are complaining about 500 euros a month, it will be 250 euros a month when this happens.  Either way, Greece is F***ED.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Entaxi, no toys but no German boot stuck permanently in our back side either.  Irlandos has hit the nail on the head.  We need our own currency back.  If the EU was run properly ie. as a union for the benefit of all countries, then maybe it could work, but the way it's run is just plain wrong.  Not flexible enough and as long as the core is all right, to hell with the rest.

Edited by Bananas
  • Like it 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good points on both sides of the argument. However, let's assume Greece leaves the euro, and without discussing the effects of this action, this still is going to be one-time fix. Therefore, if there are systemic problems, soon the same problems will appear again.

 

In other words, if I had a magic wand and waived off all of Greece's debt (not a single euro owned to lenders) tomorrow, I ask you, what do you think would happen in a couple years? Let's be honest...

  • Like it 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Reaper, even though I agree with you, I still feel like you are falling into an all too common trap that Greek political discussions succumb to. Greeks have created political divisions among themselves through their allegiances to the WORDS Left and Right rather than the values that accompany each word. This is the dangerous path towards indoctrination, that plagues Greek politics and has done so for years. Rather than acknowledge the shortcomings of individual policies , we tend to group them all together under one word or ideology. 

 

What I am saying is that the problem in Greece is not necessarily the lack of a right wing party. One can easily make a case for PASOK being more right wing than left wing if we point out their privatization programs, laisez-faire tax free haven for the ultra-rich, laizes-faire businessmen havens where the state aided in hiding dirty money abroad, lack of regulation in anything business related etc. One can even make a case for fascist like police behavior. Ironically even fascism is considered ambiguous and not the quintessential ultra right wing mascot it once was (many consider it a leftist ideology). Even Anarchism has been called a right wing ideology by some. Most of us might think of the collectivist "W'ere all equal and free" anarchist approach as Left wing but some make points about it being right wing because of the lack of governance.

 

Of course off of paper and into the real world Anarchists are extreme leftists, but what I'm trying to say is that on a broader scale, political boundaries have been skewed greatly. That is why it is so hard and ultimately pointless to try to decipher whether a country is made up of predominantly left wing or right wing ideologies. Do I have a problem with a lot of leftist principles? Sure I do. Do i think left wing principles have hurt Greece? Of course I do. But at the same time many right wing principles have harmed the country as well and if we fall into the polarization trap, we'll only end up talking in circles rather than discussing individual issues and solutions. 

 

I think it would help Greeks greatly if parties were voted on based on individual policies rather than what political extreme they belong to. Ultimately Greece's biggest problem is not the left or the right but rather corruption, and corruption has no allegiances or directions.  Hopefully one day a party can get voted into Greek parliament because their immigration reform works, or because their economic policy both helps protect the workers while at the same time inviting investment. Hopefully one day Greeks focus on policy and individual reforms rather than which party is "leftist" or "rightist" or which party is "anti-mnimonio" or "pro-mnimonio....etc.  

  • Like it 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good points on both sides of the argument. However, let's assume Greece leaves the euro, and without discussing the effects of this action, this still is going to be one-time fix. Therefore, if there are systemic problems, soon the same problems will appear again.

 

In other words, if I had a magic wand and waived off all of Greece's debt (not a single euro owned to lenders) tomorrow, I ask you, what do you think would happen in a couple years? Let's be honest...

Athinaios, Staying in the euro and signing on to the troika's plan, would be a one-time solution. With her own currency, Greece will have the option of devaluation. The aftermath of the crisis of 2009 would never have to be repeated.

 

That being said, I will comment that things will have to change even after the introduction of a Greek currency. Investment will have to be encouraged, exports will have to increase and the government and school system will have to direct youth in the right direction: the primary and secondary sectors will have to grow to increase exports, as well as the tourist industry. And yes, many will have to go back to working on the ships.

  • Like it 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Che

 

Your points are valid strictly speaking......and we don't want to get trapped in the right v left mire...

 

however the symbolism and ideology of the Greek left is so overt  and so much in every day life that it is impossible not to blame it as a major factor to the current situation....   their NO investment friendly policies and the whole education system are purely created to keep them relevant....

 

There are thousands of Tsipras in greece who exist just to sponge off the 'dhmosio' they exist to continue the current system.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

At the end of the day, was Greece in a better position before the Euro, say in the 1990's or now ?  That is the most important question.  There is no reason why Greece couldn't return to an economy of that level after a Grexit.

 

If that's the best they can do due to their crazy labour laws, left right crazy politics (which as Che pointed out is all such a load of s%$#!, I can't believe anyone believes in that crap these days), people taking 10 years (lol) to finish their degrees, then so be it.  That's as far as the Greek economy can go.  If they want to do better, then they'll have to do it off their own bat, but at least they'll have done it themselves (or not), as opposed to having EU technocrats governing the country.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...