greece The Greek Economy Thread

[Bananas]

I wouldn't exactly Spain is doing well.  Sure they don't have 26% unemployment, it's now only at 22%.  I guess the EU and ECB know what they are doing.  If this keeps up, the US and China will have to take note, pay homage and imitate ...

 

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/26/bank-of-spain-economic-recovery-accelerating

[Bananas]

jvc, right now it doesn't matter what "reforms" Greece implements.  The gig is up.  The issue is a macro one, not micro.

 

What the EU (Germany) did by convincing the ECB to withdraw funding to Greek banks should be an eye opener to everyone that reads this thread.  Apart from the fact the it was morally despicable, it's just not how a monetary union works.  Such a thing would never happen in say the US.  The US government doesn't just withdraw all funding to California or Detroit because they are having serious problems.  The EU (Germany) want it to be an economic entity but without fiscal transfers.  I get that they find this morally reprehensible.  But if that's the case, you can't have an EU that can work.  Not in the long run anyway.  Just have a look at Europe now.  It's a mess.

 

Austerity is always contractionary.  Always.  This is macro economic 101.  And what the EU has gotten Greece to agree to is austerity on steroids.  It will only make things worse.  There isn't a chance in hell the Greek economy will improve by any reasonable margin.  And then Germany will blame it on not having open markets or some such silliness.  These are problems no doubt, but in and of themselves are not the core of the problem.

 

I'm beginning to think maybe Germany made the terms so onerous so that Greece could only but fail.  And then they can have us removed ... with moral authority on their behalf.  Wouldn't that be ironic.

 

Reforms, reforms, reforms.  I'm afraid in this case, reforms of any kind won't help Greece get out of the hole.  Only growth can do that, but that was flatly rejected by the EU when it was presented to them as an alternative by Varoufakis.  I wonder why ??  Either they didn't want it work, or they don't understand macro economics.  Either way, this is not an entity I want running Greece.  Unfortunately, it's going to take more years of pain for the average greek citizen to realise the EU isn't the saviour they all thought it would be.

[js1000]

right...and in 1919 & 1940 greece should have returned to the uk and italy and germany and france all the arms given/sold/credited to us, because the british, germans, italians and french were in india, yemen, algeria, somalia, libya, czech, indochina, poland, hong kong, cyprus, malaysia...etc...etc.

 

if you were around and had a computer, would you have posted such?

 

since the 40's, we stand under the west umbrella. he never hold it, but we stand under it. we are obligated to be a good member, not some moral authority pointing fingers at those holding the umbrella. in retrospect, have those powers made mistakes? of course. did greece?  did uncle sam post on here why greece was making nice with arafat or naval treaties with assad?

I was only responding to your observation of hypocrisy, because for the UK, EU and US to demonise Russia is a tad rich, my point is i'm happy for Greece to trade with any rogue state if it benefits Greece(the UK & US do so all the time), sanctioning Russia does not benefit Greece, being members of a union swallowing up Greece's assets(further killing the states ability to generate revenue) doesn't benefit Greece, being in a monetary union where if you don't do as your told, they can switch off your money supply because you don't even control the currency you're using doesn't benefit Greece, increasing VAT making goods more expensive doesn't benefit Greece.

 

You seemed to justify sanctions for Russia for their behaviour but seem oblivious to the behaviour of the UK and US, who continually take the moral high ground and call Greece corrupt with a straight face. 

The same UK who supply arms to the very Saudi's who we are told are bankrolling ISIS, they seem to have no problem trading/selling arms to them because it benefits the UK economy.

So tell me, why shouldn't Greece trade with Russia?

I'm beginning to think maybe Germany made the terms so onerous so that Greece could only but fail.  And then they can have us removed ... with moral authority on their behalf.  Wouldn't that be ironic.

 

Reforms, reforms, reforms.  I'm afraid in this case, reforms of any kind won't help Greece get out of the hole.  Only growth can do that, but that was flatly rejected by the EU when it was presented to them as an alternative by Varoufakis.  I wonder why ??  Either they didn't want it work, or they don't understand macro economics.  Either way, this is not an entity I want running Greece.  Unfortunately, it's going to take more years of pain for the average greek citizen to realise the EU isn't the saviour they all thought it would be.

 

Add to that the fraud and the fact this entity hasn't been audited ever, which is why an exit is the only option, reform will only be effective after an exit, any revenues Greece generate now will disappear down the black hole that is the troika. 

I don't think Germany want us removed though, they want another bailout further down the line which comes with more privatisation and land grabs by their cronies. 

[gyros]

Whats the difference if a Greek owns something or a German.  Plenty of slimeball Greek millionaires who I don't care for.

[Bananas]

[RED SHERIFF]

@js1000

 

 

i think it is a very simplistic view to think that this is a German plan for 'land grab' and 'asset grab'.....

 

it's another way of us playing the victim....

 

we have minnows like Slovakia, Latvia and Luxembourg telling us we are a joke......this indicates a major problem with our 'marketability' and reputation....

 

we are not wanted because we have dug a hole we can't get out of.... every single greek kafeneio debate over the last 60 years has done us harm collectively...as it has made us take our eye off the ball and face our real problems....

[Bananas]

@js1000

 

 

i think it is a very simplistic view to think that this is a German plan for 'land grab' and 'asset grab'.....

 

 

I don't know if it's a German asset grab.  But it's definitely an asset grab.  I imagine overseas entities will only be interested in assets that are cheap or very profitable, which is only logical.  As to the composition of the fund, no details have been provided yet.

 

It's also political point scoring from Schauble, who is seen in Germany as the tough German teaching those Greeks a lesson.  This has nothing to do with fiscal responsibility or about getting Greece out of the hole.

[Giourkas]

@aek66, I'd love to know the cost of living in Slovakia compared to the one in Greece. Perhaps this has something to do with the discrepancy in pensions?

[js1000]

Whats the difference if a Greek owns something or a German.  Plenty of slimeball Greek millionaires who I don't care for.

Nothing at all, the question is whether a private individual should take ownership of something thats run by the state and making money for the state, the private individuals nationality is neither here nor there. A bit like Roman Abramovich taking over a Russian asset and the profits going to his good self to do with as he pleases instead of going to the Russian state. 

No one is knocking private foreign investment/investors, just objecting to the looting of revenue generating assets. 

If a German wants to open up a chain of shops in Greece then goodluck to him, I'm all for it, its when they have control of things like airports that i object. 

 

we are a member of a union. the union has decided that russian expansionism has to be dealt with. the option here is economic sanctions. the union is theoretically as strong as it's weakest link. 

Correct, which is why we need to exit this union because the decisions of this union are clearly not benefitting Greece.

 

 

until russia responds in a politically & militarily satisfactory way, we should not trade with them. end of story.

Really? even if not doing so is detrimental to Greece? And who gets to decide what response is 'politically & militarily satisfactory'? 

Anyone else who we should not have anything to do with because of their unsatisfactory behaviour, or is it just Russia? 

And you talk of hypocrisy? Just look no further than the respected countries we both live in. 

 

 

So JS1000 you're trying to figure a way for the debts to be forgiven....Portugal, Spain and Italy, not to mention the rest of the world's debts....We're special the others won't ask for the same....Stop dreaming the majority of the debts will never be forgiven!!! What kind of world do you want to live in? Argentina is still paying off debts, and look what they're doing to Venezuela....Inflicting pain, that's what happens when you don't payback my friend!!!

Unless you're German of course, but I think the land/asset grabs that have already taken place in Greece are more than sufficient, besides do lenders not bear any responsibility? do private lenders not have any risk associated with their lending? Or do they just get rich off the interest, dictate policy to their debtors, loot assets and have European tax payers guarantee that they're fully reimbursed+interest? 

 

Another reason why you should control your own currency

 

 

Capital controls imposed by the Greek government are taking a heavy toll on Greek businesses,according to a new report from Endeavour Greece. With over two-thirds of respondents reporting a "significant drop in revenues," and 1 in 9 firms forced to suspend production due to shortages of raw materials (unable to buy due to capital controls), the problems created by The Greek government's action seem asymmetric as almost a quarter (23%) of firms are now "planning to transfer their headquarters abroad for security, cashflow, and stability reasons."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-20/greek-economy-finished-quarter-firms-shifting-abroad

Edited July 22, 2015 by js1000

[Bananas]

To be fair, it's not like Greece went up to Slovakia and said "can you please give me some money to support my lifestyle". It was the EU that pressured them to do this. Honestly, why the hell the EU would even ask a country like Slovakia for money to help Greece, shows what a mess of an organisation they are.

The average citizen of Slovakia probably has the "right" now to be angry at Greece, and to enjoy the bashing Greece has been getting.

And that's how politics works my friends.

[gyros]

No, they didn't go to Slovakia but everyone has to pull their weight even if they can only chip in 1%.  

 

Back to the other topic about privatizing.  I have no issue with selling the old airport land to a developer and building homes on there and collecting a lifetime of taxes.  Keeping the land does nothing for the average Greek.  Might as well create jobs and taxes for the country.

Edited July 22, 2015 by gyros

[Bananas]

Agree about the airport Gyros.  As long as it's done right.  Not privatizing it and leaving it in the state is in hasn't exactly been a success story.  In fact, it's a disgrace.

 

All I'm hoping for is it's not sold off at a fire sale price with dodgy agreements where subsidies and/or cut price taxes are part of the package.  Just sell it at a fair market price and tax fairly.

[Bananas]

One of the better articles on what has happened in the last few weeks.

 

http://www.france24.com/en/20150716-greece-bailout-killing-dream-europe-germany-grexit-brexit

[RED SHERIFF]

in a bizarre way....the kafeneio brigade want us out of NATO/EU....and Fyrom/turkey in...

 

that way they have more fuel for anti west feelings...and they can then swing the old arguments..

 

- they are jealous of us

- they hate orthodoxy

- we should have been in bed with Russia and Serbia earlier

- it was all a contrived conspiracy because they want to carve us up..'see  told you in 1990 , Yugoslavia was the entree...Greece was the main target'...  'The Franks are always against us...since 1056"

 

etc  etc...

[Brklyngrk]

The thing is that privatization will help the country.  Take the Helliniko project, even if the govnt gets nothing for the property and signs a 100 year lease, they come out ahead.  How?

 

1. This is an asset they no longer have to put tax payer money in to maintain (I know, they probably havnt but lets assume its nominal).

2. Jobs will be created in the development of the property.  This will lead to people being able to spend money, the government will get taxes on the income generated by the employees plus the VAT on the increased spending.

3. Taxes on the income generated by the Hotels.

4. At the very least, it will increase the value of the property and all of the surrounding areas.

 

So you take a non-performing asset (which in essence is what that piece of land is) and turn into a revenue generating asset even if the government doesn't directly get a cut of the profits.

[js1000]

you want greece out of the union - which would further exacerbate our failed political thrusts at bilateral levels against fyrom (another story of nonsense that should have been taken care of immediately) and turkey.

 

out of the eu means no subsidies for greece and a dramatically regionally politically weaker greece. so, it's an economic and political disaster.

 

the union decides when russian aggression has halted, not the malcontent sipping his coffee in the kafeneio. we already pushed the irritation button for milosevic and made noise for putin - surely some eu big shooters are getting fed up with us.

The union decides eh, the union also decides whether our banks have money in them for the functioning of Greece, the union decides how our subsidies are spent and the union decides who we can trade with. If the EU big shooters were that fed up with us then surely they'd have kicked us out, but they now have a Greek government that does what they say so they've got their own way, regardless of any referendum. This is what Greece are losing as part of the 3rd bailout demanded by the 'union'

State lottery; horse betting; olympic venues; Athens international airport; 37 regional airports; port of piraeus and 100% of the shares of 11 other ports; some marinas and tourist resorts; state real estate, including on some islands; thermal springs on the mainland; Greek real estate holdings in New York, Belgrade and Washington; the public power corporation S.A which provides energy to the majority of the country.

Others which might go as well are ELTA(postal service), 400 miles of roads, TRAINOSE(rail and bus transport) and ROSCO(which maintains Greek trains).

 

At what point do you say enough? its not really Greece anymore is it? 

lets see how it pans out for Greece.

 

in a bizarre way....the kafeneio brigade want us out of NATO/EU....and Fyrom/turkey in...

 

that way they have more fuel for anti west feelings...and they can then swing the old arguments..

 

- they are jealous of us

- they hate orthodoxy

- we should have been in bed with Russia and Serbia earlier

- it was all a contrived conspiracy because they want to carve us up..'see  told you in 1990 , Yugoslavia was the entree...Greece was the main target'...  'The Franks are always against us...since 1056"

 

etc  etc...

 

I've certainly not heard what you've posted from anyone, the only thing i'd like is an exit from the EU/EZ, I'm not sure how bad it has to get before even you've had enough.

 

The Greek Government does have the capitalist know how to make ongoing money from hellinikon. What will most likely happen is the site will sold with a 100 year lease - the money of which will be spent in seconds. The way other countries would make money from that plot is for the state to have a 50% share in anything built there. Casinos, hotels, restaurants, harbour fees etc. 50% straight back to the state. Not even ND wanted to that. They simply wanted to sell the plot with any hope of future revenues gone. The only way the current Greek clowns in charge can imagine making money from Hellinikon is via the VAT restaurants on the plot will have to pay. That is the limit to their imagination.

 

That pretty much sums it up, but are Greece even allowed to insist on a 50% stake as part of the third bailout?

[gyros]

Still can't figure out how foolish it was not to accept the agreement back in February.  This whole banks closing thing is just sucking the country to the point of no return.  The only thing you can really do is get 420 euros a week.  They even said that big business must get approval to transfer money to buy merchandise and each is a case by case basis.  They were talking about a big grocery chain wanted to buy 700k worth of merchandise and they only got approved for 9k.  This thing can't go on much longer. 

[gyros]

^ You can thank the ECB for putting a choke hold on the banks because it doesn't believe in people actually standing up to the all mighty Germany

 

The people all went into a panic thinking drachmas were coming back and everyone withdrew their money.  It was unfortunate.

[gyros]

That dude has the best signature haha

[Dutch Eagle]

i am still glad the country rallied and voted no

i am also of the opinion that tsipras played his cards wrong from the very beginning

you can't go beg for money with an empty cup in your hand and call them thieves, terrorists and paliopoustarades too

i think some behind the scenes negotiations (not typical greek 11th hour stuff) would have gotten him further than what he achieved in the end

i am also of the opinion there are things that were agreed upon that we are not aware of, we may have gotten a bone after all that will be anounced in the coming weeks or months

obama's heavy implication and tsipras sudden change of song and dance truly makes me believe there is more than meets the eye on this matter, let's see

DP

Post or Penetration?????

[gyros]

Frankly I'm not surprised.  This is why I get a laugh at the people who wanted to convert to Drachma.  Its a highly complex thing to switch currencies and you want these guys to do it?  Yeah right.

[js1000]

Athens abandoned children. Skynews.       

 

 

this is why i weep when people demand staying in the union and continuing with their austerity programs, and using a currency where they can simply switch the supply on and off via capital controls whenever they feel like it. 

 

At what point do you say enough? 

[gyros]

You're posting a video of kids and saying that the solution would be for Lafazanis to switch to drachma.  

[js1000]

As traumatic as a transition to the drachma will be, I really don't see any other option for Greece. What do you suggest, continue to receive bailouts that go straight back out to creditors and continue to lose what was previously state owned? Everything that's going on there now has happened whilst being members of this wonderful union with its generous subsidies. 

 

What do you suggest, to continue doing what the troika demand and hope things will improve? 

[gyros]

As traumatic as a transition to the drachma will be, I really don't see any other option for Greece. What do you suggest, continue to receive bailouts that go straight back out to creditors and continue to lose what was previously state owned? Everything that's going on there now has happened whilst being members of this wonderful union with its generous subsidies. 

 

What do you suggest, to continue doing what the troika demand and hope things will improve? 

 

It won't be traumatic, it would be devastating.  A catastrophe.  A nuclear bomb on Greece would be less painful than the Drachma.  I'd rather owe money and be fed and live in a house then not owe money and walk the streets eating food out of a garbage can.  

 

We should do what most other western countries do and to be civilized.  Not some communist jack asses who steal pillage the government coffers.