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The Greek Economy Thread


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we need new politicians......and we get Marxists N17 supporters....these types have been running greece unofficially for 40 years..

 

i have not heard one policy for jobs....simply because they have none...

 

@grkjet

 

who said we don;t need to repay the debt if we leave EZ?

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I did not want SYRIZA, still do not care for Tsipras but the people have spoken.  There is anger and rightfully so.  The majority of the no came from out of work youth you have not been able to find a job for a long time.  I met some young kid the other day who came here from Greece, he must have been 27.  He told me that he and his friends had just obtained their masters degrees and not one of them could find jobs.  They were just sitting there and after 6 months, he came to the US to get a job as a waiter.  How can that be acceptable? Our best and brightest leaving because of lack of job prospects.  To say that he was lazy would be unfounded. 

 

And then you have the EU who is just being punitive.  My son, who is 5 asked me why are people waiting on lines at the banks in Greece.  I told him in simple terms that the ECB cut off funding (the other EU countries).  His response, that is messed up, why would they do that to Greece. That is not a nice thing to do.  A 5 year old realizing what many of us adults do not.  I know we live in a world were economics and finance are king, but we also have a social responsibility to our fellow man.  Last week, I would have voted Yes.  Today, I am not sure but I do not blame the Greek people for voting No.

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Varoufakis runs away at the key moment in true Greek style.

 

Yeah .... nah.

 

When Varoufakis was asked by Tsipras to be the Fin Min he stated :-

 

- he has no desire or wish to become a career politician.

 

- he doesn't agree 100% with Syriza's political views but felt he must help the nation to the best of his abilities.

 

- his ideal scenario with Greece's debt would be that Greece defaults within the EZ.

 

- his ideal scenario with the EU is that it gets a massive wakeup call, because the way they are running things (austerity, austerity, austerity) will lead to the eventual disintegration of the EU.

 

As far as I can tell, Varoufakis achieved all of his goals.

 

At the very least he's irritated the hell of out the Germans and EU and for that alone he deserves a bronze statue!  :D

 

I wouldn't be surprised if he had the idea to resign at the same time as the announcement of the referendum.  I wouldn't put it past him.

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Varoufakis was poised to go back to work today so I find it quite interesting he resigned. Is it just me or do I smell some blackmail coming from the troika to get rid of Varoufakis in order to reach an agreement? It is clear as day that they did not like Varoufakis for who knows what reason (pretty sure it's because he stood for everything they hate). In any case, the negotiation position for Greece has greatly been elevated and public opinion, not only in Greece but in the rest of the EU, has shifted in favor of no more austerity. If  the troika wants to get rid of Greece, so be it. It will suck for us, but the Germans can kiss their dream of a unified EU with a single currency goodbye!.

It will be interesting to see how the Spanish elections later this year turn out. If they get a party that is anti-austerity as well, the EU will have a real problem on their hands. Greece on it's own will never bring down the EU, not even close, but it could be a catalyst. Throw in an angry and defiant Spain into the mix, and the EU will be seriously worried.

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A few more observations:

  • The problem with the "no" voters is that there's no majority of what this means really. Stay in the EZ or leave? How much austerity? And, what does any austerity mean? No more corruption? Retirement at 52? Jobs for everyone? ....
  • Most people in all EZ countries would have voted against stifling austerity, high unemployment, loss of national independence, like Greeks did on Sunday. It's natural, but also:
  • Big majorities in the EZ countries would vote "yes" for Greece to pay back its loans; therefore the rhetoric coming out of Greece about "unity", "we showed them how proud we are", etc are pointless.
  • what Tsipras is doing today calling all political leaders trying to get a consensus about a ..deal should have been done months ago. This would have been a better show of solidarity if troika knew they had 95% of the political leadership of Greece united. This assumes that Syriza wanted to have a deal and not leave the EZ.
  • Greece has no cash, so something must be done right away, either a deal or an exit.
  • If a deal, even a more favorable one, will definitely include many tough measures of internal reforms. Should Syriza call another referendum, just to make sure that Greeks are OK with it?....
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Again, I repeat, I do NOT think troika's economic policies are good; they are failed conservative models. Already, the IMF has admitted that Greek debt cannot be paid in its current size even by a healthy economy. You can't keep a patient sick while telling him to work harder. If you want Greece to be a good club member you do cure the disease, and eliminate the sources of the disease through structural/behavioral reforms. On this, there have been very good European-led demands part of any deal offered.  Greece has to realize that it cannot continue the economic policies and irresponsible behavior of the past.

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I think the referendum answered one question, that the people are angry at austerity.  They want the euro however they cannot handle the bad policies that have been stuffed down their throat.  It showed the EU that if this is issue is not addressed, it can have a social revolution across Europe.  The Portuguese socialist party, who is similar to SYRIZA and running for elections in three months, echoed Tsipras call for end of the austerity and ironically is looking at Greece.  Many of these southern European countries are looking at Greece as a test case.  Spain just said that we will look at debt reduction for Greece, France said the same thing.  Italy stated that they want growth options in any package.  Not sure what any of this will mean if the banks cannot open in a few days but everyone is aware that something has to be done.  Hopefully, Tsipras can present to the EU a comprehensive, robust, detailed package that includes everything he wants along with some cuts.  Something the economists can agree makes sense and works.

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A few more observations:...

  • Greece has no cash, so something must be done right away, either a deal or an exit.

 

My personal opinion on this is that the Greek government should better consider the option of issuing Greek euro notes valid only in Greece (similar to N. Irish pound notes which are not valid in England).

Make them legal tender throughout the country (parallel to the euro) and forbid any premium in trading with normal euros.

That will keep the banks going, the economy going, will not be the radical step of leaving the Eurozone and - most critically - will buy us time. ;)

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Turns out the banks will remain closed till Friday, but looking more likely to be closed till Monday, open Tuesday if a deal is made..What are the NO voters thinking now? LMAO

 

Do the NO voters really think Austerity will end? All of a sudden debt gets wiped clean and they give us more money?

 

If it were that easy i would max out my 3 credit cards and credit line, and tell the banks a big F*** you i'm not paying, then ask for more money. LOL

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@Irlandos

 

Any medium of common exchange (money) has to be backed by something, nowadays is the trust of the users. [for example the US $] So, the value (what's worth) depends on what people think it's worth.  Your dollar in one place is worth more than in another place for exactly same product. (ie. coffee)

 

Now, I have a couple questions:

 

  • what would the value of the drachma be as it floats with the dollar in Greece? Will there be an "exchange" rate? 
  •  
  • If it's 1-1 (or whatever it is), how long this would last? Having your own currency means that you devalue it against other hard currency; otherwise you lose the advantage of going back to drachmas.
  •  
  • what would you rather have in your pocket?  Once people have used a stronger currency, it's very difficult to go back to a weak one, because, again, it's the trust/faith of the people that determine value (there are other factors but primarily weak money is weak)

So, in reality either Greece gets a deal and an immediate influx of euros or leaves and prints drachmas. Floating a parallel currency may allow government to pay salaries but those i.o.u.'s (I owe you) can quickly become worthless.

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If they don't open the banks by Friday, Greece will need humanitarian help.  Already hearing from pharmacists medications for cancer, thyroid, and insulin is out of stock.  Funny how the "Rock Star" quit today

 

I loved this

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/07/06/hours-after-exit-varoufakis-emerges-as-ministerofawesome/

 

Got his 6 months of world wide publicity and now off to give speeches and sell books and make millions while Greece suffers.  Another SCUM who took advantage of the Greek people.

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Weren't the banks supposed to re-open and capital controls stopped? Isn't that what SYRIZA said?

Whatever concessions SYRIZA are hoping for from the Eurozone will be IRRELEVANT because they will not reform the bloated bureaucracy and ridiculous social welfare schemes. Only a few people have mentioned this on here whilst most have ignored it.

SYRIZA are not reformers, they are populists and agitators. 

So what happens next does anyone know? 

 

Europe is squeezing these idiots hard right now.  Nobody cares about the "mandate".  I mean I don't like paying my bills every month either and if their was a mandate on if I liked paying my bills I would vote "OXI" too.  Interesting press release today by the ECB.  Pretty much tells the Greek banks to get lost and one of the 4 major banks has no physical money. The Greek newspapers only have enough paper to print for this week and then they have no paper.  

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It's alright, Bolivia, Cuba, Venezuela, Argentina have sent messages of support to Tsipra, all is well.

 

I thought that link from Fidel Castro was a joke but it was real.  Unbelievable.  

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SYRIZA is playing games, dangerous games. And i do not have any confidence that they know what they are actually doing.

Games are over my friend. Tsipras just drove the country off the cliff.

It will take the people of Greece a few days to realize what's going on. But this is it. Let the misery begin.

Those advocating for Tsipras and his referendum can now stand up and assume their part of responsibility for the suffering of a people.

Edited by JimAdams
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Regardless of the outcome we are F***ed either way, I'm just proud of our people for standing up and saying F*** you and voting OXI on Sunday, we stud up to the giant and shocked the world. If Greece leaves the euro, Spain, Portugal, Italy in my opinion will not allow to be pushed around either and don't be surprised if they start voicing there opinion and not accepting to be bullied either. Let's wait and see what happens but one thing is for damn sure as bad as things are the Greek people aren't afraid to fight. Germany would F*** anybody as long they benefited from it.

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Tsipras is saying it all depends on the EU, but the EU is saying it all depends on Greece.  It's quite possible the EU aren't concerned about the referendum result, and it's business as usual as far as they are concerned.  My guess is the fact that 75% of Greeks still want to be in the EZ gives the EU the impression that Tsipras won't use the nuclear option ie. issuing "temporary" IOU's, but who can tell ?

 

The EU doesn't want to yield too much because that would set a bad precedent, and Tsipras can't yield too much either.  There will just be some tweaking at the edges and Greece's long term situation will still remain unresolved.  I can see Golden Dawn doing well in the next election.

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Forcing Greece to accept the same terms would just go to show how bad an institution the EU is.  It would also be the end (and rightly so) for Tsipras and Syriza.  Having said that, we still don't know what game Tsipras is playing.  If it comes to it, will he back down to the EU or will he tell them where to stick it ?  I'm expecting a "retreat and declare victory" moment from both the EU and Tsipras.

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At this point accepting it will be the only way out especially since he has everyone on board (well except for KKE and GD).

 

They can all share the blame in this.  There is no way he can continue playing hardball with no money.  Its not like they are capable of moving out of the Euro to a new currency.  I don't think Syriza is capable of running a peanut stand.

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To all of those friends who've been agonizing over this serious issue, posting here, and creating a good environment for all of us to get things of our chest, I dedicate this song to you:

:D

 

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Those advocating for Tsipras and his referendum can now stand up and assume their part of responsibility for the suffering of a people.

 

Neither Tsipras nor those of us who refuse to sell off our country are "responsible" for the suffering of our people.

Reckless policies by previous governments (Andreas et al), acceptance of genocidal memorandums (Giorgakis et al) and the actions of outside forces (ECB) are what this present suffering is all about.

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Floating a parallel currency may allow government to pay salaries but those i.o.u.'s (I owe you) can quickly become worthless.

 

A parallel currency, very crucially, buys time.

Salaries will be paid, the economy will keep on going.

In the long term: if we stay in the euro, they become obsolete. If we are forced to leave, they become a national currency.

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Greece has been taken hostage by a government disguising its incompetence as heroism

And some people in here have bought the government's crap. Glorious incompetence at full display.

But then of course you have people like Irlandos that keep saying:

Neither Tsipras nor those of us who refuse to sell off our country are "responsible" for the suffering of our people.

Reckless policies by previous governments (Andreas et al), acceptance of genocidal memorandums (Giorgakis et al) and the actions of outside forces (ECB) are what this present suffering is all about.

My bad. I keep forgetting. It's always somebody else's fault. Some people don't even have the guts to stand up and defend their vote. Forget the fact that he's been advocating that Greece leave the eurozone from the beginning. I guess he thought we would just say thank you and walk out of there and start next day with a clean slate. Well, it's not going to go down like that.

Get ready for an extended period of misery. Get ready for a time of injustice. Get ready for a time where democracy will seize to exist (you've seen Syriza/Anel making a dry run at it for six months now).

And if that's what you wanted all along, stand up like a man and defend your opinion. Otherwise cut the chickenshit 'it's somebody else's fault' cowardly blame game.

Edited by JimAdams
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