Head to head results are the first tie-breaker in UEFA competitions, the Nations League included. So if we beat Kosovo here we will have secured top spot, promotion to league B and a play-off spot for Euro 2024.
A draw would also have us in a decent spot, it would mean we could afford to lose one of our last 2 and we would still top Kosovo on our H2H record.
The only way goal difference would become a factor is if Kosovo beats us 1-0.
This is the full list of tie-breaking criteria
If two or more teams in the same group are equal on points on completion of the league phase, the following tie-breaking criteria are applied:
Higher number of points obtained in the matches played among the teams in question;
Superior goal difference in matches played among the teams in question;
Higher number of goals scored in the matches played among the teams in question;
If, after having applied criteria 1 to 3, teams still have an equal ranking, criteria 1 to 3 are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the teams in question to determine their final rankings.[a] If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria 5 to 11 apply;
Superior goal difference in all group matches;
Higher number of goals scored in all group matches;
Higher number of away goals scored in all group matches;
Higher number of wins in all group matches;
Higher number of away wins in all group matches;
Lower disciplinary points total in all group matches (1 point for a single yellow card, 3 points for a red card as a consequence of two yellow cards, 3 points for a direct red card, 4 points for a yellow card followed by a direct red card).