Go:bekli Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 As usual Phantis detected that I am a robot. The opening statement can be found in the next post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go:bekli Posted April 2, 2016 Author Share Posted April 2, 2016 (edited) The Wikileaks released a presumably private conversation between Velculescu and Thompsen, possibly captured in Athens because of the spelling (Velkouleskou). I could not follow the conversation on the Greek Press and the four PhDs in economics I hired gave me four, dour and mutually incompatible, interpretations. Thank God, the WSJ has at last accepted the Greek wisdom (that the Americans are by their very nature dumb) and I read something which, I believe, I understood. Here is the heart, methinks, of the matter: Why are the lenders back in Athens when they can?t agree among themselves? In recent days the creditors have agreed on the next step. Bailout inspectors from the IMF, the European Commission and other European institutions flew to Athens on Tuesday to negotiate a list of austerity measures with Greece that might at least satisfy the European side. That would mean finding savings of close to 3% of GDP, mainly from pension and income-tax reforms. Still, what the Commission thinks is worth 3%, the IMF may say is worth somewhat less ? say, 2.5%. Even if the Commission is satisfied that Greece is on course to hit the primary-surplus target of 3.5%, the IMF will say Greece is falling short by a couple of percentage points. Then the IMF will tell the euro zone that a lower primary surplus in Greece entails major debt relief. The IMF knows outright loan forgiveness won?t fly in Germany. But it thinks Greek debt can be alleviated with a mix of decades-long extensions of loan maturities and a very long moratorium during which Greece would have nothing to pay. That idea won?t go down well in Germany. Berlin officials are sending mixed signals about whether they are prepared to countenance a de-facto hit on their loans to Greece. Edited April 2, 2016 by Go:bekli Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lazarus Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gyros Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Not really sure what everyone is stunned about. We all knew the IMF wants loan forgiveness and I'm guessing Greece bugged the phones to capture this. More Greek Political Theater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go:bekli Posted April 3, 2016 Author Share Posted April 3, 2016 The question is not who, if any, is stunned. The question is who, if any, can use it and profit. Obviously, the Greek government thinks it can use it and profit. It will be interesting to see if the the Germany will react and if so, how. My overall impression is that the Greek government tried to use it clumsily. Unless its purpose is to blame the IMF for its own failures. Apparently, if elections were were held today, ND would receive more votes than SYRIZA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gyros Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 They will win again at least as of today. The Greek polls are so off, its not even worth talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go:bekli Posted April 3, 2016 Author Share Posted April 3, 2016 They will win again at least as of today. The Greek polls are so off, its not even worth talking about. Now I am confused. If the polls are worthless, how did you come to the firm conclusion that SYRIZA would win again as of today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gyros Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 The same way you came to the firm conclusion they would lose by a poll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go:bekli Posted April 3, 2016 Author Share Posted April 3, 2016 I wrote Apparently, if elections were were held today, ND would receive more votes than SYRIZA. and If the polls are worthless, how did you come to the firm conclusion ..... and your comment was, The same way you came to the firm conclusion they would lose by a poll. I guess that I must return to primary school and learn the meaning of apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go:bekli Posted April 4, 2016 Author Share Posted April 4, 2016 I do not know what/whom Mme Lagarde misses. What I do know is that at http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2016/pr16149.htm one can read her response to Mr Tsipras. The message can be summarized (in my opinion) as follows: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go:bekli Posted April 5, 2016 Author Share Posted April 5, 2016 Tsipras and Greece madi it to the Financial Times. The opening paragraphs can be read below: Since Alexis Tsipras persuaded Greek voters to endorse a third bailout programme, after flirting last summer with sovereign default, eurozone creditors have been keen to view him as a responsible partner. The row over a leaked conversation between International Monetary Fund officials suggests they are wrong. The Greek prime minister has seized on the transcript of a teleconference about bailout negotiations to claim the IMF is trying to push the country towards bankruptcy, so as to impose ever-tougher austerity policies. Christine Lagarde, in a furious response, has all but openly accused him of wiretapping officials and leaking the recording. If it is true that the Greek government has engineered the crisis in an attempt to eject the IMF from bailout talks, then its tactics are irresponsible. Whatever the source of the leak, it is clear that Mr Tsipras wants the IMF to leave. Once again, he is displaying an instinct for short-term political gain and a disregard for his country?s long-term interests. The ever-unpopular IMF is an easy target for a prime minister facing criticism for his handling of the economy and the refugee crisis, and under pressure from the resurgent opposition headed by Kyriakos Mitsotakis. It is also true that the fund would be a tougher judge of Greece?s fiscal and economic performance. I wonder how many would agree with the sentence in bold (Once again, he is displaying an instinct for short-term political gain and a disregard for his country?s long-term interests; the bold formatting was added by me). I should add that Alavanos said something similar about Tsipras (Mega, 26/8/2015). Namely, .... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go:bekli Posted April 11, 2016 Author Share Posted April 11, 2016 It appears that the IMF has had enough of the Greek governments and at http://dailyhellas.com/2016/04/11/lagarde-admits-to-imf-mistakes-urges-greek-govt-to-do-more/ we read the following (from an interview of Mme Lagarde to Bloomberg markets): ?. ?We have acknowledged one mistake, which had to do with the fiscal multipliers,? Lagarde told Bloomberg Markets in an interview made public Monday, adding that the IMF and the Europeans had both underestimated the contracting impact of some of the recommended measures. ?We overestimated the ability of Greece to actually endorse and take ownership of measures that were needed, because we moved from one government to another to another to another, and it was always, ?It?s not really our program, it?s not really our reforms, it?s not really our measures. It?s imposed by the Troika putting all members in the same bag.? So I think that was overestimated,? Lagarde said. ??. ?Greece cannot just continuously tag along and expect that things will be sorted out. The Greek leaders will need to take more ownership of reestablishing their country,? Lagarde said adding that she saw no risk of Greece leaving the euro area. (emphasis mine). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bananas Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 I wonder how many would agree with the sentence in bold (Once again, he is displaying an instinct for short-term political gain and a disregard for his country?s long-term interests; Is this not true of every politician ? I don't see anything unusual in this. I am sure there are many politicians with plans on how to get into office. I wonder if there are any with plans on what to do once in office. As to Lagarde's criticisms (probably justified) of the failure of previous Greek governments, I can only surmise that she is naive. She is basically asking politicians to implement policies that will make them extremely unpopular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now