A great statistical Twitter account called weglobalfootball who does statistical projections wrote this preview about our group :
Spain: In our eyes, Spain is the overwhelming favorite to win the group at 90.5%. We don’t have them missing the playoffs in any scenario as a Nations League group winner. Spain missing out on Qatar 2022 would be a total shock.
Sweden: A distant 2nd. We only give Sweden a 6.7% chance to win the group, but they do have a 51.3% chance to finish 2nd and reach the playoffs.
Kosovo: A 1.7% chance to win the group and a 16.9% chance to reach the playoffs. Kosovo is going to have a difficult time in this tough group.
Georgia: Only a 0.4% chance to win the group and a 12.6% chance to reach the playoffs.
Greece: A 0.7% chance to win the group and a 10.8% chance to reach the playoffs. We think these bottom three teams are on fairly level footing.