As long as we remain pot 3 we are fine. After that is when the issues occure.
Next euro will be 10 groups of 5 or 6 teams. And being pot 3 with a mediocre pot 1 and pot 2 team could even see us 1st but big chance that it could see us 3rd based on the current rankings.
A theoritical draw at this moment:
Pot 1 right now: Spain, Belgium, France,Germany,Sweden,Denmark,Croatia, Portugal, Switzerland,England
Pot 2 right now:Italy, Wales, Austria, Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia,N.ire, Romania, Rep of Ireland,Iceland,Ukraine
We would be pot 3
So you could obviously there could be meme Groups like Sweden - Austria - Greece
but there could also be very bad Senarios like Belgium - Italy - Greece
I dont expect pot 1-2 as a total to change much.
Big teams will play each other so they ll win even just 1 or 2 of their 6 games they ll stay pot 1-2. I do expect however us being able to take this opportunity considering we re grouped with bad teams, to try and get ourselves to pot 2 , avoiding teams that are pot 1 powerwise and have been having bad results lately (Netherlands,Italy right now).
In total we got the biggest advantage to go up in the rankings than other teams in League B who shouldn't be there. They re out of their league and they ll probably do terribly, giving us a shot to actually take their spots. Talking for teams such us Czech republic, Northern Ireland, Ukraine, Slovakia, even Bosnia considering 2 of their 4 good players got retired.
I believe 3 wins at home and 3 draws away would be the minimum to do in this group. Wouldn't mind 4 wins either but we struggle with nations parking the bus. And we all know that teams like Estonia will park the bus trying to stay in division C.