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USA 2020 Elections: The Democrats

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On 3/15/2019 at 2:07 PM, Soprano76 said:

The electoral college quite clearly complicates things. 

The electoral college is a non issue, they just rubber stamp whoever wins pretty much, except for a stray vote here and there.

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On 4/12/2019 at 2:22 PM, Tzatziki said:

The electoral college is a non issue, they just rubber stamp whoever wins pretty much, except for a stray vote here and there.

What do you mean it's not an issue?

Yes, the electors from each state vote like their state voters have done, but the popular vote winner may be denied the presidency. In my lifetime in happened twice, 2000 and 2016.

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whast does that have to do with the electoral college?

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On 4/15/2019 at 12:43 PM, Tzatziki said:

whast does that have to do with the electoral college?

Candidates for the presidency design campaigns based on the EC.... How to get the right combination of states to get 270 electoral votes. It's not about winning the national vote count. I'm not disputing the rubber-stamping of the state electors (those who actually are appointed to the EC)... yes, they do as their state goes. It's no surprise really since 48 states have winner-takes-all system. For example, all electors from NY and CA are going to be Dems, whether from Texas all Repubs, and so forth.

The candidate that gets 270 out of 538 electoral votes wins the US presidency.  

So since getting 45% in a state gets you zero EVs, you don't campaign there.  Your calculation is always succeeding in the EC.

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I don't disagree with anything you said. You're right.

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I guess the electoral college allows candidates (like Trump did for instance in his last campaign very effectively) to focus on swing / close states and disregard states that have little or no hope of swinging.

 

States like Texas, Illinois, California, New York etc.

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Joe Biden entered the race and raises $6.3 M in his first day. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders pounce on Biden.

 

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Biden's announcement has sucked the air out of the room..... He's the most well known, with Sanders of course. But, I think this is due to the fact that everyone else is not known but to few Dem voters. Biden is what the Dems want: someone to beat Trump. Sanders doesn't have the same numbers among Dems in a hypothetical match against DJT, which would worry me if I were him.

I could also see a dynamic where Biden maintains a 25-30% support while the divided field doesn't allow anyone to come close to that to challenge him.

Yet, I do believe it's way to early to make predictions right now.  Barak, who? (2007)

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Back in 2012 I followed the Biden-Ryan debate and I wondered why (1)Biden behaved like a drunk sailor and (2) the organizer of the debate did not kick him out. Apparently other people had similar reactions, and today I stumbled on an article on Biden's past achievement and his manners. For those who do not remember the Biden-Ryan 2012 debate,the following an article can be read at www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/joe-biden-was-trump-before-trump;

The juicier points (in my opinion) are below:

Biden, on the evening of Oct. 11, 2012, delivered the most extraordinary, most ambitious, and most undignified performance in the history of televised vice presidential debates.

Biden snickered and guffawed his way through the debate, interrupting his opponent repeatedly for the sake of interrupting, and firing irrelevant juvenile comebacks at his opponent's sober points.

Surely, this boorishness would hurt Biden. Surely, laughing at dead servicemen in a war his administration started, and at the insolvency of entitlements, would look bad to the press and the public.….......

After every 2016 Republican debate, I would comment to my wife and to my conservative colleagues, surely Trump’s boorishness, ignorance, and utter lack of dignity will look bad to voters. Yet after every debate, Trump rose in the polls.

Like Biden 2012, Trump 2016 would interrupt his opponents — not to make a point, but to interrupt, to establish his dominance over the likes of Jeb Bush. When an opponent lodged a perfectly valid criticism of Trump, Trump would respond with an irrelevant, often personal attack. His “counterpunching” was never about rebutting an attack, it was about inflicting maximum pain so as to make the opponent hesitate before punching the next time.

Biden made it clear that being a vulgar pest was a winning formula in American politics. So America was about to see vulgar pest-hood for real. If Biden was Jack Nicholson's Joker, Trump would be Heath Ledger’s Joker.

.....

Biden was the proto-Trump in many other ways besides the boorish debating. Biden, for instance, had a creepy habit of pawing at women and kissing them in the open, and somehow got away with it. Americans, it turned out, tolerate this creepy grabbing.

This made it a bit less shocking in 2016 when Donald Trump didn't collapse in the polls after being caught bragging about how he kisses women he’s just met, and grabs their crotches, and “they let you do it.”

Biden peddled old racial stereotypes and somehow got away with it. "You cannot go to a 7-Eleven or a Dunkin' Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent,” he said in 2008, before Obama chose him as a running mate.

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Well the Dems decided to fight fire with fire....their analysts crunched the numbers and decided to pit one comic book character against another. The analogy about the different jokers shows the level of surrealism in American politics atm.......maybe we're living in the Joker-verse.

Edited by AchillesHeel
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17 hours ago, Bashibozuk said:

For those who do not remember the Biden-Ryan 2012 debate,the following an article can be read at www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/joe-biden-was-trump-before-trump;

¡Santa Madre de Dios! Why on earth would anybody read an opinion article by Timothy P. Carney on the Washington Examiner bashing Joe Biden? This opinion comes from the same person that wrote the book: "Obamanomics: How Barack Obama is bankrupting you and enriching his Wall Street friends, corporate lobbyists and union bosses". Seriously? Is this part of the let's-attack-Biden-so-people-turn-against-him conservative strategy? Zero credibility for this opinion writer.

¡Por favor, deja de estos articulos sin sentído!

For those that really want to see for themselves, here is the Biden-Ryan debate in its entirety. Watch it. Do not fall for the crap peddled by conservatives.

 

 

Edited by Pepito
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The Repubs are morally corrupt. They're openly advancing the interests of big business and the wealthy elites. But, in order to get support for their policies from the people, they lie and distract. They lie about their economics. They don't work for strengthening the middle class. They have a negative proposal for (our) government. To them gov is not there to provide a safety net, and social services every decent advanced civilized country has and needs! To them it's a libertarian gov that does national defense and law & order. (and they would even privatize that if the GOP could) only. They're stuck in the 18th century! 

Distractions? Oh, yeah, Benghazi!  Seriously? Let's say it was 100% HRC's fault (It wasn't and the GOP Congress investigated her 30+ times).... still it doesn't follow you'd vote for DJT or any Repub. Corrupt Clintons? OK. but she'd be raising her own taxes to pay for social programs, not like DJT and the Repubs who cut their own taxes and gave permanent tax breaks to the wealthy, when the meager middle class tax cuts expire in a couple years. 

This regime is a kakistocracy (as some people have already mentioned). Rule by the worst.

 

As for Biden, yeah, I'd take him over any Repub anytime even if he fell into a coma in 2020.  Which condition he appears to be in, or he had left the planet between 2007-2017.... when he says now that Trump is the GOP's problem, and once he's gone the Repubs will see the light..... Really? Clearly he's forgotten what they did to Obama. He forgot what McConell said before even Obama took the oath , that he'd make him fail. 

Trump is the result of the Repub party's ideology and practices in the last 25 years..... a party that allowed unheard personal attacks (DJT began his campaign by questioning Obama's legitimacy, birthright, etc) against political opponents, attacked the legitimacy of our institutions (elections, judges, media, military, etc) advanced racist rhetoric, empowered hate groups, promoted the worst divisions in our society (actually this is their strategy), and lowered the political discourse to new depths. They even denied Obama a nomination to the supreme court....

You want to be supporting the party of ..stupid?  Yeah, any party or individual who is anti-science is a moron! No way to sugar-coat this.  And, the GOP has this unique distinction among conservative parties in the West.... Anti-science, moronic, and a stance that represents ignorance!

 

 

Edited by Hudson
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Does anyone know which corporations are sponsoring both sides in this one? Anyone new or is it the usual suspects?

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Capitalist corporations do what they can to promote own interests so they lobby and give to both parties, especially the ones in power.

Wealthy individuals, on the other hand, may be supporting the left or right.

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^^^^ When you're wealthy, you do take an interest in politics, because you want to keep your money, and create laws that further advance your wealth holdings. The so-called "donor class" does exactly that.

Yet, there are a few who may be crazy and are ..traitors to their own class, supporting policies that may depend on taxing the wealthy and regulating capital/marketplace.

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Last night I was visited by Gabriel (the angel) who asked me to help mi amiguete Pepito to read an article at the Guardian ( https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/oct/12/joe-biden-paul-ryan-debate ) where he would read

In the normal course of events, vice-presidential debates, much like vice-presidents themselves, don't particularly matter. And this may well prove to be the case with Thursday night's confrontation in Kentucky. But if it is, it won't be for lack of trying on the part of Joe Biden, whose high-energy performance – part angry bar-room debater, part condescending elder uncle, part comic mime artist – frequently seemed to leave Paul Ryan overwhelmed.

On more than one occasion, the Republican candidate visibly gulped. It's dispiriting, of course, that political discourse should have been reduced to such displays of alpha-male dominance.

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On 5/17/2019 at 1:11 PM, Pepito said:

¡Santa Madre de Dios! Why on earth would anybody read an opinion article by Timothy P. Carney on the Washington Examiner bashing Joe Biden? This opinion comes from the same person that wrote the book: "Obamanomics: How Barack Obama is bankrupting you and enriching his Wall Street friends, corporate lobbyists and union bosses". Seriously? Is this part of the let's-attack-Biden-so-people-turn-against-him conservative strategy? Zero credibility for this opinion writer.

¡Por favor, deja de estos articulos sin sentído!

For those that really want to see for themselves, here is the Biden-Ryan debate in its entirety. Watch it. Do not fall for the crap peddled by conservatives.

 

Biden was very good at that debate. He exposed the empty rhetoric of another con-man, Paul Ryan.

Biden poses a big threat to the Republicans and Trump, because he would beat them, and as a front-runner (so far) is being attacked.

On the other hand, many leftists, especially the activists who will participate in the primaries, see Biden as of the old guard and not as progressive enough. The truth is that Biden represents a wider centrist-to-left spectrum in American politics, more so than Sanders or Warren.

I think Biden would make a decent president, and would be a vast improvement over the current WH occupant. I also think that his best chance of becoming president was in 2016, not 2020.  He could be the man to beat in the Dem primaries, but I think by next Feb there will be 3-4 strong candidates who will challenge him for the nomination. Unfortunately for him, the Dems don't have a system like the Repubs (in many states) that gives the winner all the delegates in a state; they allocate their delegates on a proportional basis, which means Joe will have challengers hanging around. There might be 1-2 of them that will soon be gathering most of the anti-Biden vote.

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Sure. Maybe Gibril (by divine intervention) can pay for the NYT subscription as well?

¿Porque en la tierra? Why on earth do you keep pushing this stuff? We don't need Alessandra Stanley or Timothy P. Carney to tell us what we can see with our own eyes. Anybody interested in what Joe Biden and Paul Ryan said and did watch the debate at the Youtube video above.

The rest is a waste of time, an effort to tell us "don't believe what you see with your own eyes. This is what really happened". ¿Qué tan estúpidos crees que somos?

 

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Querido Pepito.

Según Gibril su problema es su respecto por las opiniones burdas de los Gringos!

Since I don't know if you are Mexican, allow me to continue in English.

  1.  I saw the “debate” between Biden and Ryan back then
  2. When Ryan would speak, Biden would contort his body. I doubt that a chimpanzee could have a richer repertoire.
  3. When Pence and Kane had their debate, whenever Pence tried to answer a question, Kaine (the #2 of Mrs Clinton) would pop to disagree with the statement that had not been finished.

I quoted an article (Biden/Ryan debate) of the Guardian. Did the Guardian lie and if it did, why did the Guardian print a plain lie?

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17 hours ago, Bashibozuk said:

 I saw the “debate” between Biden and Ryan back then

So did another 51.4 million people according to Nielsen. Your point is?

17 hours ago, Bashibozuk said:

When Ryan would speak, Biden would contort his body. I doubt that a chimpanzee could have a richer repertoire.

Is that your opinion or is that what you quoted from the Guardian?

17 hours ago, Bashibozuk said:

When Pence and Kane had their debate, whenever Pence tried to answer a question, Kaine (the #2 of Mrs Clinton) would pop to disagree with the statement that had not been finished.

What? Are you a totally confused individual? Who cares about Pence and Kane?

17 hours ago, Bashibozuk said:

I quoted an article (Biden/Ryan debate) of the Guardian. Did the Guardian lie and if it did, why did the Guardian print a plain lie?

I don't know where you think you quoted the Guardian, but even if you did... So what? The Guardian is a British daily that features opinion articles. Even if somebody has an opinion of something does not mean it is true - or a lie for that matter. It's an ...opinion. You have an opinion that Biden was aggressive with Ryan. Is it the truth or is it a lie? Neither! It's just an opinion.

Again I suggest that people watch the debate and form their own opinion. Maybe you should watch it again too. If you don't like Biden, don't vote for him - if he wins the nomination.

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For those that follow these things, what do you think about Biden's take on the climate crisis and fossil fuels?

 

I'm not sure I'm sold. But whatever it takes to get the Orange Orangutan out and bring a little sanity to political life in the US.

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Biden realizes that in order to have a chance in the Dem primaries, he has to address some of their concerns. Note: those who vote in the primaries tend to be on the more progressive side (and more conservative on the Rep side).   Biden's message since he declared was that he will restore ..Obama's politics, return to normalcy, and restore the credibility of the presidency. He also believes the Repubs will change their tactics once Trump goes, and that Biden can successfully work with Moscow Mitch.  (He is wrong, in my opinion)

So, I don't know whether these new policies is a serious plan by him or just a way to show he's got "new" policies the Dem base cares about. I'd guess he's not going to be a fighter. He reminds me of GHB (41, the elder) who just wanted to be president as a right.

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Posted (edited)

I can only say to everybody that Bernie Sanders is the only legitimate Democratic candidate who can dethrone Donald Trump. His bluegrass movement and progressive ideas is the countries only hope for a major change. I am all for Medicare for all, free college tuition and raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour. 

Edited by Molon Lave
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