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Greece vs Belgium (3 September 2017- World Cup Qualifier- Karaiskakis Stadium, Piraeus)

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HellasLEAF    27

Estonia was disappointing of course but 1 loss and 4 draws in our last 5.  A couple of goals.  It's not enough clearly.  

That might get the job done in the coming expanded Euro's but not for World Cup.  Not beating Bosnia at home was another major stumble.  With a late goal from Tsavellas to save the campaign.  

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trotsk13    1

This is the way it stands now... (keep in mind Greece has 10 points, having only played Gibraltar once; Bosnia has only 8 for the purposes of the 2nd round seeding, because they've played them twice). Greece's max point total is 13, which is why a win over Cyprus is obviously a must. 

 

Pos Grp Team
Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts Qualification
1 B 23px-Flag_of_Portugal.svg.png Portugal 6 5 0 1 21 3 +18 15 Advance to second round (play-offs)
2 C 23px-Flag_of_Northern_Ireland.svg.png Northern Ireland 6 4 1 1 9 2 +7 13
3 F 23px-Flag_of_Slovakia.svg.png Slovakia 7 4 0 3 11 5 +6 12
4 I 23px-Flag_of_Ukraine.svg.png Ukraine 6 3 2 1 8 5 +3 11
5 A 23px-Flag_of_Sweden.svg.png Sweden 6 3 1 2 10 7 +3 10
6 E 23px-Flag_of_Montenegro.svg.png Montenegro 6 3 1 2 10 7 +3 10
7 G 23px-Flag_of_Italy.svg.png Italy 5 3 1 1 9 7 +2 10
8 D 23px-Flag_of_Ireland.svg.png Republic of Ireland 6 2 4 0 6 4 +2 10
9 H 23px-Flag_of_Bosnia_and_Herzegovina.svg. Bosnia and Herzegovina 6 2 2 2 10 8 +2 8

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Megas    10

I don't want to sound negative but I think we will miss out. don't understand why we didn't come out and play against Estonia. This is killing all us supporters having to wait another 4 years for a world cup appearance. I thought them days were in the past but greek soccer has unfortunately fallen to the dark years again where we finish 3rd in our group and miss out by a point or two. We need the 6 points for ranking purposes. euro2020 groups will be made before the world cup.

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ausgreek    206

Uncle Spiros says, if his thia had balls she'd be his thio, that's the final breakdown of all this. Go Ethniki and,,,, Tziolaris!!!

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Molon Lave    147
On 9/4/2017 at 9:45 PM, trotsk13 said:

This is the way it stands now... (keep in mind Greece has 10 points, having only played Gibraltar once; Bosnia has only 8 for the purposes of the 2nd round seeding, because they've played them twice). Greece's max point total is 13, which is why a win over Cyprus is obviously a must. 

 

Pos Grp Team
Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts Qualification
1 B 23px-Flag_of_Portugal.svg.png Portugal 6 5 0 1 21 3 +18 15 Advance to second round (play-offs)
2 C 23px-Flag_of_Northern_Ireland.svg.png Northern Ireland 6 4 1 1 9 2 +7 13
3 F 23px-Flag_of_Slovakia.svg.png Slovakia 7 4 0 3 11 5 +6 12
4 I 23px-Flag_of_Ukraine.svg.png Ukraine 6 3 2 1 8 5 +3 11
5 A 23px-Flag_of_Sweden.svg.png Sweden 6 3 1 2 10 7 +3 10
6 E 23px-Flag_of_Montenegro.svg.png Montenegro 6 3 1 2 10 7 +3 10
7 G 23px-Flag_of_Italy.svg.png Italy 5 3 1 1 9 7 +2 10
8 D 23px-Flag_of_Ireland.svg.png Republic of Ireland 6 2 4 0 6 4 +2 10
9 H 23px-Flag_of_Bosnia_and_Herzegovina.svg. Bosnia and Herzegovina 6 2 2 2 10 8 +2 8

Thanks for the clarification ! 
I was wrong
Thing is isn't Denmark in second place in group E? 

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kbxk508    115

^trotsk13

Good data. Greece would have 10pts and +2 goal difference but has played 7 games. 

It's fair to say if we don't win in Cyprus it will be improbable, else impossible to qualify even if Bosnia lose to Belgium and draw away to Estonia. 

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Brklyngrk    70

All we can do is play the last two games, we win them both and we got a good shot in making it through which was always the plan at the beginning of the campaign (to drop less points than Bosnia).  Regarding the Estonia tie, it happens.  Small teams put up big results some times, it happens.  France got tied by Luxemburg the other day.  Say what you want, but their third string team should have beat them by a few goals.

Against Estonia, we dominated that game except we couldn't score.  It happens.  Against Belgium, we were arguably the better team throughout the match.  We should have at least had a tie.  For many who predicted a blow out, this was an excellent game.  We played well, pressed them and held them in check.  I truly believe if we had Mitro, we win both games.  He is on another level from our other CFs/Strikers.  Donis proved in these last two matches that he deserves to play and should be a mainstay on the wing for the foreseeable future (at 21 yrs old).  Our CBs are great, gk is good, even Tzavellas has shown to play well in his role.  We need more creativity in the midfield but hopefully someone can step up and fill that role.  Another winger and a true dekari and Greece can be a top 10-15 team. I may sound overly optimistic, but we have improved immensely over the last campaign.  We may even be better than the 2014 team that made the quarters at the last WC.

 

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Argy    157

I find this UEFA qualification format ridiculous. 

The way it should be:

1st place= automatic ticket

best 2nd place= automatic ticket

8 remaining runners up= playoffs

Europe is so deep and talented that runners up should not be punished, but rather rewarded. 

Utter bullshit the way it is.

Edited by Argy

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Ellada2004    21
54 minutes ago, Argy said:

I find this UEFA qualification format ridiculous. 

The way it should be:

1st place= automatic ticket

best 2nd place= automatic ticket

8 remaining runners up= playoffs

Europe is so deep and talented that runners up should not be punished, but rather rewarded. 

Utter bullshit the way it is.

That's 100% right it's a dog fight to qualify through Europe!

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Molon Lave    147

They do this in European qualifying 
Once the FIFA World Cup expands, you pretty much will get your wish. 

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before todays match Greece is above Ireland coz we have scored one extra goal than them. I will check the data and possibilities after todays matches are finished coz right now  wales is drawn to moldova. It seems to me however (Since Wales have currently12 points after playing a win over Moldova and their current draw undergoing at 75') that if Wales takes second play today , over a win, they re also at 8 points and +1 goal.Considering the fact that Wales has difficult matches and Ireland maybe thats where this group (and the last team of play offs) is settled. Both of them help us qualify  beyond them if the current results remain.

Edited by Rockafeller Skank

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Just now, J1078 said:

@Rockafeller Skank

but does the Wales result even count since Maldova is the last place team in there group when it comes to top second place teams?

The results against last finishing teams dont count only between the 2nd placed teams.

The results count when it comes to who finishes 1st,2nd,3rd in the Group.

Its only between the 2nd placed teams. The reason this mechanism of uefa qualifiers exists is because until last year , we had Groups of only 5 teams and not 6. With Gibraltar/Kosovo additions we no longer have. So they had to somehow figure which team was the 2nd worst when some 2nds had played 10 matches and some 2nds had played 8. So they just didnt take into account the matches of the 6th team. If you didnt understand agian tell me so I write it in Greek and maybe sound more reasonable.

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Ellada2004    21

Serbia win, good news. Wales win, Turkey wins arggg, Iceland win not good. Looks like we will need Wales or Slovakia to slip up.

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Boxou    27

we want 4 results in the first place..

bosnia-beligum = bosnia NOT to win

cyprus-greece = greece to win

wales-ireland = draw 

greece-gibraltar = greece to win

this way we're in the 8 best teams as if wales and ireland tie up, then they will be a couple of points behind us. that's the simplest scenario, the one which follows is the one i pointed out yesterday with england's group. it's more simple than we thought only 2 days ago basically.

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J1078    302

Wales getting the win today shouldn't impact us as they beat the last place team in there group so those points get deducted anyways.. Am I right or am I missing something?

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Full Analysis of 2nd spot after 8 matches:

After Today's Matches:

Group B: Portugal/Switzerland

Group C: Northern Ireland

Group G: Italy

have mathematically taken play off spots.

 5 spots left.

Group F: Slovakia is Tricky. They have already 12 points but only have one match left that counts. and that Match is vs Scotland away, which is another attender for 2nd spot.
If Slovakia lose to Scotland, They go second with 11 points and a GD -2.
If Slovakia and Scotland draw, Slovakia remains 2nd with 13 points and a GD + 6. Still above us unless we throw 5 goals to Cyprus.(In case of even GD aka if we scored 4 to Cyprus, bigger attack matters and currently we got 7 while they have 11).
All this according to the most possible scenario that Slovenia loses at England next matchday and is off the 2nd spot hunt.

My opinion is that Slovakia will dominate this Group and it's too hard we find a savior from here, and even if they don't its too many results needed to be combined. I'd give a 5% chance at best the results help us.
Group A: Sweden-Netherlands. Currend 2nd spot team Sweden has 10 points right now. Other 2nd spot contender is Netherlands with right now 10 points. The last placed team has not been decided in that Group. Both Belarus(currentl last) and Luxemburg have 5 points. Belarus has a harder programme as they have France away and Netherlands at home. I expect Belarus who already have a worse GD than Luxemburg by 2 goals to finish last. which means that Luxemburg just need to concede 2 less from Sweden away and Bulgaria at home. I believe a totally uninterested Bulgaria in last matchday will not score many.

So based in this Scenario Sweden can reach +3 points and go to 13(with more than +3GD  if they Beat Netherlands, while Netherlands can get +3 points at best if they beat Sweden at home. Both teams can end up with maximum 13 points same as us, depending on the match between them. Currently Sweden with +3 GD and Netherlands with a +2. It is obvious that we can hope that both teams either draw each other or win by one goal.

I would honestly give this group a 25% chance to give a last team.

Group E: It's a battle of Montenegro/Denmark. Currently both at 10 points with a maximum of 16. Denmark currently has a +6 GD while Montenegro has a +3. Their upcomming matches have them to play each other at Montenegro(note that Montenegro beat Denmark away). Last matchday however Montenegro plays at Poland away and Denmark plays Romania,which might be a factor. The Group is not yet decided, but based on Montenegro last matchdays I give them few chances of finishing above Denmark, as they have the same Goal Differences so it might come down to Montenegro conceding lots to Poland or Denmark scraping goals to uninterested Romania. I believe Denmark have higher chances to finish 2nd and based on their current GD(+6) they most likely will finish above us even if they lose to Montenegro. I give this group  slim chances to give the last spot. 5% .

Group I: Currently even Croatia is in the game for possible second. This is definately not good for us.

Croatia 10 points with a possible 16 against Finland and Ukraine(4th and 5th teams). They will definately scrap at least  4 points and be above us if second. No point to check GD. If they somehow end up with only one win at 13 points they have a GD +2. Will probably top the Group with 4 points though.

Iceland already 13 points and a GD of +3 with the possibiliy of becomming 16 or 14 against Turkey away. It's the 2nd spot derby. If Iceland lose Turkey steals their 2nd spot and they are currently with 8 points and a -1 GD. For Turkey to finish 2nd they need 2 wins which will get them to 14 points and above us in points. This is probably the most possible scenario as Turkey are currently on fire and even beat Croatia athome. Their last match is vs Finland. If the match Turkey-Iceland goes to draw Iceland grab a point and are above us in point. 

All these possibilities considering Ukraine is non typically off the hunt for 2nd spot (They play neither Turkey nor Iceland to their last 2 matches to be able to steal points from them and they are already 2 points behind Iceland).

Best case scenario: Turkey win Iceland, Iceland are stuck in 13 points and a GD < +2 and Turkey drops points away to Finland. Too many results needed for our favor find it hard , Id give them however more  than the others, a 15% as all teams have low GD and low goals scored if it comes to that it might be a factor. So 15% they are a bottom playoff spot team.

Group D: Wales have currently 8 points and have played Moldova twice which means they have a possible maximum of 14. Mathematically , based on all the combinations of their upcomming matches they can't get 5 points and be on tie with us so the GD doesnt matter , although it would be in our favor as they have +1. (The  13 points is a given from the fact that we need to beat Cyprus to possibly be in 2nd spot, so we ll end up 2nd only with 13 points , or with 10 goals vs Gibraltar, which is impossible ). Wales Play Georgia away which ended up in a tie last time they met , and then have Ireland at home so I would give them slight c hances of reaching those 14 points. Which means that Ireland with playing Moldova at home has higher chances to finish 2nd. Ireland currently have also 10 points and a GD OF +1 If I am not wrong, after losing to Serbia today. Considering that even if they end up second, it's probabl gonna be with low goals or draw vs Wales(which means Wales go 2nd with 12 points and are behind us in case of draw), as they play them away, and both teams are not offensive powerhouses. Since they have only one match left due to playing Moldova again, max points they can also get is 13. In other words Ireland has higher chances than Greece to be last team because of them playing Wales and us Cyprus. Group gets a 25% for giving the last team.

Group H is our Group. We ve talked about everything . If im not Wrong 25% was meant to be left for our spot as well. However, considering that we win Cyprus convincingly and our GD goes up from +3 to +5. I think that can have it non-typically settled.
It seems to be between us / Netherlands/Sweden and Wales/Ireland

Friendly reminder that the Netherlands-Sweden match is played 10 october at 21:45 , Wales- Ireland at 9 october 21:45 and Greece - Cyprus at October 7 21:45. So even if we win Cyprus, we might have to wait till the last minute of the last qualifier to know if we grabbed a spot or not, if prelast matchday results don't settle it down. The fact that we will have a GD +5 (if we win cyprus by 2) or +6 (if we win by 3) which is a hopeful but not impossible scenario puts the pressure on all the teams mentioned on the run to not only win, but to make sure they have an efficient GD with the other contender for last spot , aka us. Ireland and Wales might surely struggle offensively based on their current GD and latest results. So If we were secured the 2nd spot( and not Bosnia) I believe our chances would be at least half than the other two Groups.

To sum up / too long didnt read version : If we win Cyprus by 2 and Bosnia draws/loses to Belgium we will most likely not finish as the 9th team.

Sorry for the long post but I think im giving an insight and relaxing people who ll be on their feet this whole month till the last qualifiers. I literally had nothing better to do (+ Wanted to see our chances for myself).

 

Edited by Rockafeller Skank

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Forgive my ignorance but the premise of the two results (in points) being deducted is because of the fact that Group I has 5 teams while the rest of the groups have 6.

Upon checking, Group I has 6 teams.

I really think it's as simple as the best 8 second-placed teams going through. We know what Greece needs to do for this to happen as well as hope for some favourable results elsewhere....

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J1078    302

Guys every group does have 6 teams this format was implemented I think because the odd number of teams but every group does have the same number of teams.. This is so confusing.. what's the purpose of deducting the points and goals if every group has the same number of teams. Are we still sure we are correct by the deducting of points?

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