greece The Greek Economy Thread

[Irlandos]

I hate to say it but it's more like: what will the troika do with it.

 

The reasonable thing would be for them to pull in their talons and try a formula that will work. The current debt is unsustainable and the austerity imposed has made the Greeks suffer - as they can now plainly see.

[gyros]

A 100% haircut won't work with Greece.  They spend more than they bring in.  They just hired 2000 more government workers last month.  

[Irlandos]

The same is true of most governments.

 

A writeoff is a necessity but I would like to see an agreement also to encourage Greek exports.

[gyros]

Will be an ugly week for Greece.  Frozen economy.  The OXI people will quickly tap out with no money this week.  

 

Note to all you youngsters out there.  Save your money and make sure you control your financial destiny. You don't want to be like Greece and put into a corner with no other options.

[gyros]

Gyros America in the end will back up Greece....They will not become Africa!!!

The deal is already being discussed as we speak, and all parties will walk away looking like rock stars....The doomsday scenario that you're predicting will not happen.

Greece's geographic location saves them again.

 

Greece will wake up tomorrow to closed banks.  This vote means nothing except to allow Syriza to last another day.  The doomsday scenario happened this week.  

[gyros]

No way.  Banks will remain shut for a while.  Capital controls will be in place for weeks if not months.

[JimAdams]

You seem to have a real problem with anyone disagreeing with you.  It's an internet forum.  And people have their opinions.  And it's a politics thread!  Just accept it.

 

Your "I'm going to give it to him" style of posting with anyone that disagrees with you is over the top.  You have some good points, so just make them.  No need to be so combative all the time.  Or do you just enjoy the verbal jousting ?  Just saying.

I defend my opinions Bananas. With tooth and claw. I do not attack people for their opinions. I call out ignorance when somebody posts something that is not substantiated with logical arguments. And yes, I do enjoy a debate. If I crossed the line and personally insulted somebody, I apologize. If I insulted somebody's political, religious or other beliefs, then so be it.

 

]Jimmy, if the criteria for posting on this thread are that you need to have spent x amount of days, months or years living in Greece before you can post, you're going to have a very quiet thread with not many posts. Where is the cut off ? Can one post if they've lived in Greece for 5 years, but it was 20 years ago ? Or can they post if they lived there for 2 years, 5 years ago ? Is there a formula ?

Good argument, but that's not the point. The point I'm making is that if somebody is not knowledgeable on a subject they should not try to make arguments they cannot substantiate. IT's easy to spot out ignorance on a subject.

Anyway, back to the topic at hand.

And so the count-down starts. Tsipras fooled the people once again, and this Greek government can kiss Europe goodbye.

Edited July 5, 2015 by JimAdams

[gyros]

I'm surprised that after 34 pages, nobody has mentioned to switch the currency to bitcoin.  

[gyros]

Jvc,

 

Just some advice.  You're showing your youth right now. Take a few deep breaths and realize this isn't a sporting event.  There is no negotiations planned for tomorrow between Greece and the EU.  Their is a Eurogroup meeting planned for Tuesday and a possible summit on Greece later this week.  The head banker of Greece was just quizzed on ERT and he only could say that the ATM's will be working tomorrow and nothing further.  Please don't gloat and act like you won.  Nobody won tonight.  Greece is a miserable country and will be for years. More austerity is on the way.   

[Irlandos]

Greece won tonight.

 

We sent to Europe and the World, a clear message that this country is NOT for sale.

It was paid for in blood, we will not sell it for paper.

[Koro]

This vote is a sign of defiance against the Northern European politicians, the wealthy businessmen, bankers and the one-sided media corporations in Greece and abroad.

 

The Euro currency is a disaster and more are beginning to realise this. Not just in Greece, it was great to see solidarity marches in other countries like Ireland, France, Britain and Spain in support of the Greek people. I know people have said parties similar to Syriza could do well in elections in Spain and Ireland, while right-wing Euro scepticism is rising in France. Europe is changing and the EU-oligarchy don't like it one bit.

[Original 21]

Anyone wanna tell me how this is a win for greece??? Because we still have NO money at all coming, and banks will remained CLOSED. It's hilarious how some of you think the banks will be opened this week and the capital control will be lifted when the country has no cash lol

[Bananas]

Greece will wake up tomorrow to closed banks.  This vote means nothing except to allow Syriza to last another day.  The doomsday scenario happened this week.  

 

Don't agree.  I think this is more like the entree, and there is still main and dessert to be served.  More like Def Con 4 to 3.

 

No way.  Banks will remain shut for a while.  Capital controls will be in place for weeks if not months.

 

 

If the EU plays that game, Greece will be forced to issue IOU's just like California did.  The pressure on the EU will mount and they will look like they are kicking a man who's already down.  The EU has miscalculated before (they seem to have a good track record) and although they may think this could break the Syriza government, it could back fire as well.  Samaras quitting (that caught me by surprise) doesn't help their cause.

Edited July 5, 2015 by Bananas

[Bananas]

Some observations.

 

- The No vote did surprise me.  After all the (mis)reporting this week I was expecting it to be a lot closer.

 

- Tsipras and Varoufakis need to get in there and negotiate, and do it quickly.  Their proposals have to be reasonable and the Troika have to bend a little.  Having the IMF (surprisingly) admit they got things wrong, coupled with the No vote, means the EU can't just ignore the situation and keep insisting on only their terms.

 

- Now is the perfect time for the EU to get rid of Greece, if that is what they truly want.  All they have to do is keep stalling the negotiations and let the banks go bust while the situation in Greece crumbles each day.  The negotiations in the coming days, weeks or month will indicate their position.  I've always maintained Greece leaving the EZ is their worst fear.  Let's see what happens.  I don't see this as a realistic outcome.

 

- Regardless of the referendum result, or the negotiations to come, I think this is a win for Greece and for the EU as well.  Hopefully the EU realises that austerity, austerity, austerity is not always the best way forward.

[jarvis1981]

Greece got the NO  vote and sent a clear message.

Let them have a party tonight but their true resolve will be tested in the next few weeks and months.

None of us truly know what will happen. I've heard the term "uncharted waters" several times by media outlets.

I hope that none of the political leaders take this in a personal way and just address the issues at hand.

 

Will there be debt relief?

Can Greece reform and eliminate the oligarchs?

What will other EU countries do and demand?

[Bananas]

From Paul Krugman blog.

 

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/07/05/europe-wins/?module=BlogPost-Title&version=Blog%20Main&contentCollection=Opinion&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body

 

Tsipras and Syriza have won big in the referendum, strengthening their hand for whatever comes next. But they?re not the only winners: I would argue that Europe, and the European idea, just won big ? at least in the sense of dodging a bullet.

 

I know that?s not how most people see it. But think of it this way: we have just witnessed Greece stand up to a truly vile campaign of bullying and intimidation, an attempt to scare the Greek public, not just into accepting creditor demands, but into getting rid of their government. It was a shameful moment in modern European history, and would have set a truly ugly precedent if it had succeeded.

 

But it didn?t. You don?t have to love Syriza, or believe that they know what they?re doing ? it?s not clear that they do, although the troika has been even worse ? to believe that European institutions have just been saved from their own worst instincts. If Greece had been forced into line by financial fear mongering, Europe would have sinned in a way that would sully its reputation for generations. Instead, it?s something we can, perhaps, eventually regard as an aberration.

 

And if Greece ends up exiting the euro? There?s actually a pretty good case for Grexit now ? and in any case, democracy matters more than any currency arrangement.

Edited July 6, 2015 by Bananas

[Original 21]

I hope and pray for the good of my country that Tsipras and Varoufakis prove me wrong and get a better deal but I'm really not convinced they can... Time will tell, the next 48 hours are crucial, please prove me wrong Tsipras.

[athinaios]

Hold on, so the referendum was to ..strengthen Tsipras hand?!! Hmm. 

 

Even Paul Krugman doesn't think Tsipras knows what he's doing. But, Krugman says democracy won, so what if there's a Grekexit and back to the drachma..... Sure. If that's what the majority of Greeks want.

 

 

In my estimate, the Greek government doesn't have much of bargaining power, unless it has decided to leave the eurozone. It's now the troika and other leaders (suprisingly, the US is playing a role pushing for a "haircut" and keeping Greece in the ez) who have to ask themselves whether they want Greece in or out, and what are they willing to pay for keeping Greece in.

[athinaios]

although I can't be certain, I believe very strongly that the banks will re-open sometime this week, most likely Tuesday

 

if they do not, Merkel & cie will be lambasted by the intl community

:la: :artist:

 

If I understand the banking system a little, you need money to operate. No?!  All Greeks will rush to the banks to take all their money out, especially after this referendum.

 

So, where are they going to find this cash reserves? I'm talking euros..... unless they start printing drachmas!

[athinaios]

I hope and pray for the good of my country that Tsipras and Varoufakis prove me wrong and get a better deal but I'm really not convinced they can... Time will tell, the next 48 hours are crucial, please prove me wrong Tsipras.

 

I agree,as I believe all of us here want the Greek government to succeed in getting a good (better) deal from the troika, and get some economic recovery out of this harsh austerity. However, we disagree as to how this is done or how well/badly Tsipras has handled the situation in the last 5 months.

 

Also, nationalistic stances and high-fallutin' rhetoric won't put euros in Greek banks. The banks can't open or if they do, there isn't enough cash in the vaults, so they'll accept deposits only.... ;)

 

I'm betting that all Greeks would want to have euros in their hands now instead in the bank because if Greece leaves the EZ, their deposits will be converted to drachmas, which of course will buy you squat of anything imported. Sure you can pay your barber in drachmas, but if you like having anything Greece doesn't produce, it's goodnight!

[Bananas]

the austerity measures have failed. all the analysis, statistics and reports have proven that. time to try something new

 

+1

+1

+1

+1

+1

[Bananas]

Varoufakis has resigned.  I wonder if that was the plan all along.  You never know with this man.

 

http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/07/06/minister-no-more/

 

I particularly like this quote "And I shall wear the creditors? loathing with pride."

[Akritis_1944]

This "no" was a slap in the face to the inflexible and unyielding European autocrats. The Greek government had to show some conciliatory move towards Brussels, so by giving them Varoufakis' head on a platter the illusion that he was the problem can be dressed up as the major obstacle removed and fresh negotiations will most likely commence within days, if not hours.

Like I have stated before, I think even with a reduction in the debt the economy will be stagnant for 10/15 years. Major initiatives to change Greek society and culture need to happen. Is this government going to continue with the decades old graft and malaise?

Samaras is gone but I anticipate he'll stick around behind the scenes.

I don't think Greece is going to go back to the drachma so it's trying to survive in the EZ for now.

Let's see what transpires. Things are not going to be easy.

[RED SHERIFF]

OlympicHellas Greece will make the reforms, even on their own, they have no choice.

 

greece...(Syriza and tsipra) will not and can not make reforms.....

 

I have not heard ONE policy regarding reforms...

 

yeah he may reform pensions from 67 back to 48?

[js1000]

 

- Now is the perfect time for the EU to get rid of Greece, if that is what they truly want.  All they have to do is keep stalling the negotiations and let the banks go bust while the situation in Greece crumbles each day.  The negotiations in the coming days, weeks or month will indicate their position.  I've always maintained Greece leaving the EZ is their worst fear.  Let's see what happens.  I don't see this as a realistic outcome.

 

- Regardless of the referendum result, or the negotiations to come, I think this is a win for Greece and for the EU as well.  Hopefully the EU realises that austerity, austerity, austerity is not always the best way forward.

The EU don't want to get rid of Greece, the EU also know austerity doesn't work, its not meant to work, they want their creditors and corporate buddies to own everything in Greece through privatisation, and austerity to impoverish the people, in exchange for bailouts. When you have impoverished people, they'll do anything, they'll work for these tax dodging vile corporations for next to nothing and if they don't immigrants will, another thing the EU encourages.

 

those of you saying Greece spends more than it makes and can't stand on its own and need reforms. 

You can have the best reforms that make Greece super efficient but it will never be enough to take care of the debt. Reforms need to occur immediately AFTER an exit from the EU/EZ

 

 

 

I'm betting that all Greeks would want to have euros in their hands now instead in the bank because if Greece leaves the EZ, their deposits will be converted to drachmas, which of course will buy you squat of anything imported. Sure you can pay your barber in drachmas, but if you like having anything Greece doesn't produce, it's goodnight!

Thats true but its only short term, the alternative is staying in the EU/EZ and gradually becoming more and more impoverished.